To preview what FY 2025 will look like for EB-5, we can look at trends from FY 2024 which ends on September 30, 2024.
Here are the key takeaways:
- FY 2024 was a record year for EB-5 allocation. FY 2025 lines up to be just as productive.
- Reserved investors are getting Unreserved visas, forestalling chart dates in FY 2025.
- Increased productivity at IPO will lead to heightened demand and competition for visas in FY 2025.
1. FY 2024 was a record year for EB-5 visa allocation.
While the EB-5 program typically allocates around 10,000 visas in a fiscal year, there were over 20,000 visas available due to carryovers of unsused visas and new post-RIA rollover policies. The State Department confirmed the operational priority to use Unreserved Visas which expire at the end of the fiscal year. Reserved Visas do not, and instead rollover to the Unreserved Inventory if unused over a two year period.
An estimated 15,000 total visas were allocated in FY 2025, sending a message of EB-5 power to Congress and Investors. We will know for sure when the year concludes and numbers are provided.
What does that mean for FY 2025?
We will soon find out how many visas will be available for FY 2025 based on the rollover of unused reserved visas and the new supply of unreserved and also new reserved visas. The actual number of visas available for use in FY 2025 could be anywhere from 15,000 to 20,000 depending on how the Government closes out FY 2024. If the unreserved visas are again prioritized, it’s fair to forecast that the government could again allocate another 15,000 visas.
2. As we predicted last January, Dual Approval Codes allow for visa maximization.
As reflected on the I-526E approval notice, setaside investors are given two codes for use. The notice implies that the decision making process for overseas investors requires their input. However, based on our FOIA data and conversations with attorneys, USCIS is automatically allocating unreserved visas to rest of world investors. This strategy relieves stress on China and India within the setaside categories and helps forestall visa chart dates, leading to additional revenue for the fee-based agency.
What does that mean for FY 2025?
Keeping the dates open leads to more petition filings and creates more demand despite the charts showing that visas are currently available. On one hand, that unlocks the benefits of concurrent filing for domestic filers. EAD and Travel benefits are typically delivered in ten months and the concurrent filing locks in the age of the minor children in the family. On the other hand, investors need to be aware that there is more than enough implied demand from China and India petition filings in each setaside category to flood a full year of available supply within the setaside quotes.
The key takeaway for investors is to know that hundreds of fast outcomes in can’t be provided to thousands of applicants. Investors are encouraged as always to consider filing a Writ of Mandamus, which is a powerful investor tool to leverage if certain conditions are met. Behring has provided a full breakdown about that tool in the context of EB-5.
3. October Visa Bulletin sets the stage for FY 2025
The State Department released the October 2024 Visa Bulletin which reflects advancement in Chart A: Final Action dates for both China and India Unreserved visas.
China’s Chart A date moved from December 15, 2025 to July 15, 2016.
India’s Chart A date moved from December 20, 2020 to January 1, 2022.
Why did these jumps happen?
Due to carryovers of unused visas, there was a “bumper crop” of available visas, and FY 2025 and FY 2026 will also have a surplus of inventory for allocation compared to normal years. The Department of State compares available visas to approved petitions and family sizes to set chart dates.
Not only was FY 2024 a record year for EB-5 visa allocation, it was also a year of significant productivity at the Immigrant Investor Program Office, who bounced back from Covid and policy related headwinds to take actions on over 6,000 petitions, a number not reached since 2018. The combination of increased operational efficiency and enhanced visa allocation policy helps program participants, and especially Congress, see that the job creation program can be viewed with renewed confidence.
What does that mean for FY 2025?
It’s fair to assume that IPO productivity will shift their balance from pre-RIA investors to post-RIA investors as a low net backlog allows a strong operational year to flex approvals across both investors. Those approvals lead to increased demand for visas so it is unclear when and how chart dates will move, and when dates will be imposed in setaside categories.